Coordination and non-coordination risks of monetary and macroprudential authorities: A robust welfare analysis

This study compares a central bank’s leaning against the wind approach with a mix of monetary and macroprudential policies under parameter uncertainty in an estimated DSGE model with two financial frictions. We show that uncertainty of the economic environment is an essential constituent in properly designing macroprudential policy. Although coordination between monetary and macroprudential policies minimizes the policymakers’ Bayesian risk, coordination and non-coordination risks threaten the goals of both authorities. The former describes the situation where the authorities partly resign from implementing the monetary policy objectives to stabilize macroprudential risk. The latter is when conducting a non-coordinated macroprudential policy induces higher total Bayesian risk than when only the central bank minimizes the expected total welfare loss. The robust Bayesian macroeconomic rules show that when financial shocks shrink the banks’ or entrepreneurial net worth, a contractionary macroprudential policy should be combined with an expansionary monetary policy. However, if capital adequacy ratio or risk shocks strike the economy, such a conflict in macroeconomics policy instruments disappears, thus synchronizing both policies.     

基于发电成本与环境效益的风电最佳接入容量分析

为充分了解风电接入电力系统后对发电成本及环境效益的影响,计算符合系统运行经济性的风电接入容量,建立了风电最佳接入容量优化模型。采用该模型分析了不同容量火电机组在不同功率下的煤耗特性变化,并通过对火电机组深度调峰补偿调动火电机组调峰积极性;引入火电排污成本以充分体现风电接入后的环境效益,加入弃风惩罚费用来保障风电优先调度。采用粒子群算法并结合主动搜索技术(active explore basic particle swarm optimization,AEPSO)对模型进行求解,有效解决了粒子群算法易陷入局部最优的问题。最后以某地区实际电力系统为例,计算得出了在最经济运行模式下的风电接入容量,验证了模型的合理性。该研究可为相关决策部门制定风电发展规划提供参考。     

高压输电塔覆冰承载能力分析及塔型优化

采用湖南郴州王仙岭地区的一座500KV线路ZB1酒杯型直线塔的工程实际数据,采用空间桁架理论,在ANSYS中建立有限元模型,并验算输电塔塔架在其自重、覆冰荷载,风荷载和导线张力的共同作用下塔架的承载能力。在不同的工况下得出输电塔塔架中相对薄弱的位置,薄弱位置在塔颈和塔身处,并对其进行优化设计。对比优化前后的输电塔塔架,承载能力得到很大提高。     

我国小型风力发电产业发展现状及前景研究

近些年来,我国加快推进千万千瓦级风力发电项目的实施,却忽视了小型风电产业的发展。本文在简单介绍小型风力发电及分布式发电的基础上,深入分析了我国发展小型风电的必要性和现实可行性,研究了中国小型风电产业的发展现状和存在问题,并提出了一些推动中国小型风力发电产业的发展建议。